Here’s how I think things will play out.

1. Indianapolis Colts – QB Andrew Luck – Stanford

Don’t need to say anything, it’s all been said.

2. Washington Redskins (via St. Louis) – QB Robert Griffin III – Baylor

Same as Luck what’s left to say?

3. Minnesota Vikings – OT Matt Kalil – USC

Personally, I think the Vikings should address their secondary first but not many teams pass up a franchise left tackle when it’s a position of need. Can’t blame the Vikings one bit if they do indeed take Kalil instead of someone like Morris Claiborne who could help them now. This is a pick I could see being traded for additional picks.

4. Cleveland Browns – HB Trent Richardson – Alabama

Many are picking Richardson here even though no one knows what the Browns will do. I’m doing the same and the reason is pretty simple. When you play defenses like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens you can’t pass the ball all the time, you need an effective running game. That’s something the Browns don’t have and that’s something that Richardson will change instantly.

I could see the Browns trading this pick just for the fact someone will overpay. With the Browns having so many holes why not take the extra picks.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Morris Claiborne – LSU

My draft continues to mirror all the others and it’s because the Bucs main need is in the secondary. I toyed around with the idea of Stephen Gilmore here but I think Claiborne would be a better fit for Tampa. The NFC South is a passing division so I don’t think they need a corner as physical as Gilmore. So Tampa goes with the Claiborne the guy who many have as the best defender in the draft.

6. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) – WR Justin Blackmon – Oklahoma State

This pick is pretty damn simple. Sam Bradford had absolutely no one to throw the ball to in 2011 so it’s time to give him a weapon.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Michael Floyd – Notre Dame

The Jaguars have a ton of receivers on the roster but none of them have that much talent. They signed Laurent Robinson this off season; he was #3 on the Cowboys depth chart with Jacksonville? He’s number one. So obviously there’s need and Floyd has star potential. More then likely though this pick gets traded.

8. Miami Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill – Texas A&M

Don’t see how the Dolphins make any other pick here.

9. Carolina Panthers – DT Fletcher Cox – Mississippi State

Little bit of a surprise pick here as the Panthers drafted two defensive tackles in last years third round. Both of those guys sucked so why not take another stab at the position? If I was Carolina I’d be hoping for Floyd to fall here, a trio Floyd/Steve Smith and Cam Newton would be explosive.

10. Buffalo Bills – CB Stephen Gilmore – South Carolina

A lot of people are thinking Riley Reiff will be the selection after losing out on another left tackle to the Eagles but I don’t think it will happen. Reiff isn’t the type of tackle that Chan Gailey likes. With the Bills publicly stating that cornerback is a spot of need time to take one of the best. He’s physical style would be perfect in the AFC East.

11. Kansas City Chiefs – OG David DeCastro – Stanford

The Chiefs had a pretty solid defense in 2011 and the unit is only getting better. Some will want to address that area and make it even better, I disagree. They added Peyton Hillis to the backfield and Kevin Boss at tight tend, so shouldn’t they make the offensive line stronger? Give Hillis some room to run.

12. Seattle Seahawks – DE Melvin Ingram – South Carolina

Another South Carolina defense comes off the board as the ‘Hawks address their biggest area of need, the pass rush. Luckily for them they even land themselves one of the best pass rushers in the draft.

13. Arizona Cardinals – OT Riley Reiff – Iowa

The Cardinals could go in a number of areas with this pick but I think for them it’s best to address the offensive line. It’s always been a weak area for them.

14. Dallas Cowboys – DE Quinton Coples – North Carolina

This is the point where Coples finally stops falling. Many teams are scared off by the rumored lack of effort. For the Cowboys that’s no worry especially when Coples can handle a major area of need, the defensive line. Coples will be able to play inside and outside, wherever the team needs him.

15. Philadelphia Eagles – S Mark Barron – Alabama

Many believe the Eagles will take a defensive tackle here, actually most people believe it. With Andy Reid’s history I can’t blame anyone for thinking that. Personally though I’d go with Barron he can be a huge difference maker in their secondary an area that really struggled in 2011.

16. New York Jets – LB Courtney Upshaw – Alabama

Another Alabama defensive player comes off the board as Courtney addresses one of the few needs on Rex Ryan’s defense. He’s a power rusher who can also get down and play out of the three technique. He’s versatile that could be a major weapon for Ryan and will help give his defense the pressure it needs to make turnovers.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via Oakland) – CB Dre’ Kirkpatrick – Alabama

The run on ‘Bama players continue as the Bengals address one of their areas of need, secondary. They signed Terrance Newman but could still use some help. Kirkpatrick has some character issues but that’s never an issue for Cincinnati.

18. San Diego Chargers – DE/LB Whitney Mercilus – Illinois

The Chargers defense has been aging fast the past couple years and Mercilus could give the unit a much needed shot in the arm. Whitney can play the line or outside linebacker and will do something that not many on the team can do, rush the quarterback. The team was in the bottom of the third of the league in that department, that’s something Mercilus will change quickly.

19. Chicago Bears – DT Dontari Poe – Memphis

The defensive line is definitely an area of need for the Bears and Poe can help all across it. Poe is one of the bigger guys but yet pretty fast for the position. He’d definitely clog up the middle and open things up for Julius Peppers to do his thing.

20. Tennessee Titans – DE Chandler Jones – Syracuse

The Titans can use more help rushing the quarterback, much like every other team in the league. The unit ranked second worst in the NFL and signed Kamerion Wimbley to help, even then that’s not going to be enough.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – LB Luke Kuechly – Boston College

In a matter of two picks the Bengals have revamped their defense in a major way. Luke will be an instant upgrade over Rey Maualuga .

22. Cleveland Browns (via Atlanta) – OT Cordy Glenn – Georgia

A lot of people are taking a wide receiver for the Browns but I’m not sure they’ll go that route. Yes, taking someone like Stephen Hill or Kendall Wright would make the offense more explosive. With Richardson now running the ball that would be one solid offense but who cares if they can’t block anyone?

Glenn would help bolster the offensive line and they’d be able to get a wide receiver a little later in the draft. A position much deeper then offensive line.

23. Detroit Lions – OT Jonathan Martin – Stanford

Lions will either address the offensive line or the secondary here. In my opinion, the offensive line is the bigger area of need. For how good Matthew Stafford was in 2011 he could be that much better with some protection and a running game. Stafford was sacked 36 times in 2011, which is just way too much. His leading rusher only gained 390 yards. So getting some better hogs up front should change that and make a dangerous offense even more explosive.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Dont’a Hightower – Alabama

Here goes another guy from the Alabama defense and the Steelers couldn’t be happier that Hightower fell to them. Hightower is the best player available (something the Steelers tend to draft) at a position of need. He’d be a great replacement for James Farrior.

25. Denver Broncos – WR Kendall Wright – Baylor

The Broncos need a defensive tackle and in a bad way. I don’t see them addressing that here in the first round regardless of the talent still available and for one reason, Peyton Manning. The Broncos didn’t bring him in to continue being a running team so they’ve got to give him some weapons to throw too. Wright would be John Fox’s new Steve Smith and give Manning a deep threat to throw to.

26. Houston Texans – WR Stephen Hill – Georgia Tech

Popular pick here would be to go with a defensive end / linebacker type, someone who can help replace Mario Williams. Me, I don’t think Houston will go that route. The defense did pretty good last year without Mario as they’ve got plenty of young talent that grew up pretty quick.

What they really need is a wide receiver opposite of Andre Johnson. Sorry Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones aren’t that good and don’t make defenses think of anyone else. Hill will do just that, he’s got size, speed and can even block. He’d also give them their wide receiver of the future as Johnson is on the other side of 30.

27. New England Patriots (via New Orleans) – DE/LB Nick Perry – USC

Perry is the perfect guy for a Bill Belichick defense as he can play in either a 4-3 or 3-4 defense. He can play the defensive end in a 4-3 or a standup linebacker when the Pats switch to a 3-4. He’s got lots of speed 4.5 – 40 yard dash and he’s an athlete, 38.5 inch vertical jump. Perry could be the pass rusher the Pats needed as he had 21.5 sacks over the past three seasons with over 20 tackles for losses.

28. Green Bay Packers – DE/LB Shea McClellin – Boise State

McClellin is an obvious choice here for the Packers as his versatility will be a huge weapon for Dom Capers. Shea is a guy who can play inside or outside linebacker and even line up at defensive end. With his pass rushing skills on one side will finally free Clay Matthews from the constant double teams.

29. Baltimore Ravens – RB Doug Martin – Boise State

The Ravens are one of the few teams that don’t have any real holes, they’re drafting for depth. One of the areas that need depth the post is the running back position. If Ray Rice goes down this team is in trouble. So I’m thinking that’s where they go with the pick.

30. San Francisco 49ers – OG Kevin Zeitler – Wisconsin

Much like the Ravens the Niners don’t need much. I toyed with the idea of Coby Fleener here but the 49ers have Vernon Davis and are happy with his backups. So I believe they’ll go after some depth on the offensive line.

31. New England Patriots – S Harrison Smith – Notre Dame

I think this pick will get traded but as of now it’s not so let’s see. I’ve got the Patriots addressing their pass rush with the 27th pick and because of that I don’t think they’ll go with another defensive lineman. Instead they’ll address their safety situation which is pretty weak. All they’ve got is Patrick Chung and after Mark Barron, Smith is the only safety worth drafting early.

Now after saying that; Belichick could surprise and take another defensive lineman like UCONN’s Kendall Reyes. Someone who is very tough against the run and rush the passer at the same time, which means he can fill in at any position on the line.

32. New York Giants – TE Coby Fleener – Stanford

This is another pick I could see traded the Super Bowl Champs don’t have many needs but they’ve got enough. People like to say that Jerry Reese drafts the best player available but it’s usually BPA at a position of need. When looking at the current board Fleener is exactly that, the best available and a tight end which is a HUGE need.

You can find My Sports Rumors Mock Draft listed on various outlets. Take a look at the following Draft Databases and compare us to other bloggers and experts.

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The Dolphins are going to chase Peyton Manning if he becomes available in free agency. That is already decided. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross loves the idea of Manning and has established him as the offseason quarterback priority.

Manning first.

Matt Flynn second. (Miami Herald)

After reading Armando Salguero’s post you can definitely understand why and it’s not just because he’s Peyton Manning. Salguero hit it right on the head when he said Peyton would be a cash cow, they’d win a few games and because of who he is they’ll sell tickets, more then normal. Memorabilia sales would also go through the roof.

He also goes to argue that this may not be the best direction for the organization which is also a valid thought. Peyton would give the team a short term boost but would it address the long term? I too doubt it.

Me? Give me a free agent chase of a great pass rusher. Give me a trade-up for Robert Griffin III or the selection of whatever rookie QB the personnel department gets most comfortable with. Give me the signing of 27 year-old Matt Flynn even. Get me some more improving and building for the long haul. Get me the short-term pain in exchange for the long-term gain.

I know I’m in the minority. I am like a salmon swimming upstream and the Miami plan and the Miami fans are big brown bears waiting in the middle of the flow to swallow me because of my opinion.

That’s fine. Let’s talk in two or three years when we’re right back where we started and you’re screaming for a young QB and a new coach and a new GM — again. (Miami Herald)

While adding Peyton wouldn’t be the best for the teams future it would definitely give the fans some excitement. In my mind, I’d go with Flynn and give him a chance while they build the team up around him.

What would you do?

The Jets officially announced on Wednesday that Tony Sparano will replace Brian Schottenheimer as the new Jets’ offensive coordinator.

“When we sat down with Tony, I knew that he was the right person at the right time for our offense,” Rex Ryan said in a statement released by the team. “I’ve admired his work as a competitor in the division for the past three seasons. His teams were always physical, tough and hard-nosed.” (Manish Mehta – New York Daily News)

I’m not surprised Rex went in this direction as the Jets offense sorely needs some toughness. While the defense has been tough as nails since Ryan took over the offense has continued to be weak, actually soft. Which doesn’t fit for Rex, especially with him wanting to go with a “ground n’ pound” type attack.

For how bad the Dolphins offense was in 2011 (22nd overall) they ranked 11th in the rushing category with 124.2 yards per game. That’s Sparano’s style run, run and run. It helped that he didn’t have a real quarterback to throw out there but regardless his style is too run which will fit in well with Rex’s game plan.

With the Jets wanting to go more towards a rushing attack what does this mean for Mark Sanchez and the development he still needs. Sanchez proved this season that he has a long way to go before being a franchise quarterback and I highly doubt Sparano’s signing will help him get to that level. So what are the Jets to do now?

Well, they still interviewed Haley this morning. The Daily News says that Haley could be brought in as a “passing coordinator to complement Sparano”. This makes total sense as the Jets would bring in someone who can coach the part of the offense, that Sparano can’t. He’d also be able to help in Mark’s development.

—-

Personally, I hate seeing coordinators who can’t coach both sides of the ball but this could actually work for the Jets. Sparano will add the toughness the offense needs while implementing the style of play Ryan wants. While Haley helps to develop Sanchez.

So while its something I’m not a fan of these might be the best moves the team can make this off season.

As always home teams in caps.

INDIANAPOLIS 16, Jacksonville 10
New Orleans 32, ATLANTA 27
Houston 30, TAMPA BAY 20
CINCINNATI 27, Pittsburgh 24
UPSET – CAROLINA 26, Tennessee 21
PHILADELPHIA 26, Arizona 20
KANSAS CITY 27, Denver 24
Buffalo 24, DALLAS 18
CLEVELAND 20, St. Louis 13
MIAMI 23, Washington 17

Baltimore 24, SEATTLE 16
SAN FRANCISCO 32, New York Giants 26
CHICAGO 30, Detroit 23

New England 27, NEW YORK JETS 23
GREEN BAY 36, Minnesota 30

I’m going with Carolina as my upset based off of Cam Newton’s comments this week. Cam pretty much said his season has been a failure because he doesn’t have the wins. He’s become a leader on that team in a very short period of time and I think a comment like this will get his teammates to rally behind him.

There were two games that I went back and forth with because of late scratches.

Philadelphia – They’ve got no DeSean Jackson today because of his alarm clock not going off and causing him to miss a team meeting (cough cough bullshit). I still think the Eagles will win but lowered the margin of victory. Jackson hasn’t been much of a factor and well the Cardinals don’t have Kevin Kolb.

Washington – They decided to start Rex Grossman over John Beck. I had Miami winning this game but as of hearing this news I thought of flipping this game in the ‘Skins favor. Then I remembered what Grossman did in his last start, four interceptions on 22 passes.

I’ve got the Colts getting their first win this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has arguably the worst offense in the NFL and I think they’ll make Indy’s defense look better then it actually is. I also see Indianapolis players starting to play with more fire, much like the Miami guys did, as they near an 0-16 season. They’ve got a winnable game and the guys should come out fired up ready to get off the goose egg.

The late games today should be great.

I’ve got Chicago continuing the roll they’re on by squeezing out a win over the Lions. The reason, I don’t see Matt Forte turning the ball over in key situations again.

Much like last week my heart tells me the Giants will win but because of injuries I just can’t pull the trigger. They get Hakeem Nicks back but could lose Mario Manningham, and there is still no Ahmad Bradshaw. The 49ers defense is much better then the Patriots, so I’m not sure if Eli can carry them to a win again. If he does, his MVP chances could skyrocket (yes, I know Aaron Rodgers has that on lock down).

Patriots / Jets on Sunday Night Football should be a great game. The Jets are on a roll while the Patriots are actually on a two game losing streak. They’re tied for first and the winner is pretty much in control of the division. (Sorry Bills fans, I still have doubts). I think the Patriots pull this one out on the road, there’s no way they lose three straight. They look bad right now but you know Bill has been up their asses all week.

Last Week – 9-4
Season 70-30
UPSET – 4-3
LOCK – 5-2
Correct Scores – 0
Partially Correct Scores – 6

As usual home teams in caps.

DALLAS 26, Seattle 19
LOCK – Atlanta 33, INDIANAPOLIS 16
BUFFALO 31, New York Jets 20
HOUSTON 27, Cleveland 13
San Francisco 23, WASHINGTON 20
NEW ORLEANS 33, Tampa Bay 17
UPSET – Miami 22, KANSAS CITY 20

Cincinnati 23, TENNESSEE 20
OAKLAND 30, Denver 13
NEW ENGLAND 24, New York Giants 20
St. Louis 20, ARIZONA 16
Green Bay 27, SAN DIEGO 24

PITTSBURGH 23, Baltimore 20
Chicago 25, PHILADELPHIA 22

Lock is Atlanta over Indianapolis, pretty much needs no explanation. My upset does. Kansas City may be hot lately but I like how Miami performed against the Giants last week. If it wasn’t for an almost perfect game by Eli Manning they would have pulled off the upset. The Dolphins played with some urgency and I expect that again this week, the difference will be the Chiefs don’t have an Eli Manning.

I expect Buffalo to put some big points on the Jets defense. I know, I know how do I figure. Well Buffalo has been a high scoring machine at home this year, while the Jets defense has been very generous on the road.

The Patriots / Giants will be a great game but it pains me to say New England should pull it out. The Giants defense will terrorize Brady like they did in the Super Bowl. The difference this time isn’t a Plaxico Burress or David Tyree but it’s the lack of the Giants two best weapons, Hakeem Nick and Ahmad Bradshaw.

The 49ers are 3-0 on the East Coast this year and I expect them to beat the banged up ‘Skins to go 4-0, it will be close though.

Here’s my real shocker this week, more then the Dolphins. I think the Bears will go into Philadelphia and win Monday night. Yes, the offense was spectacular last week, they looked like the dream team they were supposed to be but who did they play, the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, their defense is good but the ‘Boys game planned for classic Andy Reid aka pass happy abandon the run. Chicago won’t make that mistake. The Eagles defense will tee off on Jay Cutler but I think the Bears will lean heavy on Forte, who should consistently get to the Eagles linebackers. If Cutler minimizes the turnovers and just make the passes he’s given the Bears could pull this off. I have these two teams very evenly matched this week, which means I can bust big on this pick. Meaning watch the Eagles go and blow the Bears out but I’m sticking with my gut, a Bears upset.

Last Week – 8-5
Season 61-26
UPSET – 3-3
LOCK – 4-2
Correct Scores – 0
Partially Correct Scores – 6

As always home teams in caps.

NY GIANTS 34, Miami 20
HOUSTON 23, Jacksonville 13
BALTIMORE 26, Arizona 13
LOCK – New Orleans 32, ST. LOUIS 16
CAROLINA 25, Minnesota 22
TENNESSEE 24, Indianapolis 17

Detroit 24, DENVER 21
BUFFALO 20, Washington 17
Cincinnati 23, SEATTLE 16
SAN FRANCISCO 26, Cleveland 20
New England 30, PITTSBURGH 24

UPSET – Dallas 27, PHILADELPHIA 25
San Diego 30, KANSAS CITY 17

- New Orleans is an easy lock against the Rams, especially after last weeks performancce

- I think the Cowboys pull off a huge upset in Philly tonight. The Eagles may have a 12-0 record coming out of a bye in the Andy Reid era but it’s not as good as it appears. Philly sports talk radio looked at those 12 wins and only 3 or 4 could be considered quality, meaning they’ve been blessed with easy games after the bye. Look for the ‘Boys to steal one late.

- Buffalo struggles with a depleted Washington offense but pulls out the win.

- Denver gives a struggling Lions team a fight but the savior, Tebow once again doesn’t have enough to complete the comeback but does enough to excite his fan base.

- Steelers / Patriots of course the Game of the Week. I think Brady leads the Pats to a late touchdown drive for the win.

- Carolina / Minnesota could wind up as one of the better games this week two. Hopefully it winds up a well played game by both rookie QBs and not a turnover filled mess.

Last Week – No Picks
Season 53-21
UPSET – 3-2
LOCK – 4-1
Correct Scores – 0
Partially Correct Scores – 6

Team sources are saying that Tony Sparano will remain coach of the team for the near-term, barring a significant change in thinking by Ross. Ross left town after Sunday’s comeback 18-15 victory by the Denver Broncos over the Dolphins and is flying across country on business.

That makes a change less likely because it is hard to believe anyone would make such a significant change over the phone. (Armando Salguero – The Miami Herald)

My thinking is a little bit different. Salguero finds it hard to believe anyone would make such a decision over the phone, me I think it’s because he doesn’t have anyone lined up to replace Tony.

So you’re thinking hire a interim coach from the current staff? I say, what’s the point? I hate when teams do that, what change actually happens when this occurs? I’m sure Ross is just thinking if I don’t have anyone lined up I might as well stay with what I have because we can’t make real changes till the off season.

The only thing that could backfire by not making a move now is next weeks opponent. If the Dolphins could pull off a road upset over the first place Giants then Sparano definitely won’t be going anywhere during the season.

Now for the Giants, I’m sure they’re glad Sparano is still in charge they just have to make sure they don’t have a letdown like the Seattle Seahawks game.

1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Detroit Lions
6. San Diego Chargers
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Buffalo Bills
10. Pittsburgh Steelers

11. New York Giants
12. Tennessee Titans
13. Oakland Raiders
14. Cincinnati Bengals
15. Houston Texans
16. Washington Redskins
17. Atlanta Falcons
18. New York Jets
19. Chicago Bears
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Seattle Seahawks

22. Dallas Cowboys
23. Kansas City Chiefs
24. Cleveland Browns
25. Arizona Cardinals
26. Carolina Panthers
27. Denver Broncos
28. Jacksonville Jaguars
29. Minnesota Vikings
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Miami Dolphins
32. Indianapolis Colts

Quick Thoughts

- Detroit takes a slight drop after a tough loss but with it being against the also 5-1 Niners, they stay in the Top 5 but get leaped frog by those Niners.

- The Giants are also a mover this week after beating the Buffalo Bills. This was the first game all year where I felt the Giants played like a solid team, even with the few big plays they let up on defense. Because of that reasoning, I can’t yet put them back into the Top 10.

- There was a huge battle in the NFC Central between the Saints and Bucs, thanks to the Bucs win they move ahead of the Saints who take a slight tumble in the rankings.

- The Colts continue to bring up the rear at 0-6.

- The Eagles move back into the Top 20 thanks to their win over what was appearing to be a solid Redskins team. I think this is the beginning of the end to the Redskins season, thanks to the reappearance of the real Rex Grossman.

- The Raiders are now 4-2 and moving up my rankings quickly. With them adding a QB of Carson Palmer’s caliber I think they’ll be moving into the Top 10 quickly.

Here are the picks as always home teams are in caps.

LOCK – GREEN BAY 36, St. Louis 16
Buffalo 27, NEW YORK GIANTS 20
CINCINNATI 26, Indianapolis 17
ATLANTA 31, Carolina 27
DETROIT 26, San Fransisco 23
Philadelphia 23, WASHINGTON 18
PITTSBURGH 24, Jacksonville 17
OAKLAND 27, Cleveland 21
BALTIMORE 30, Houston 27
New Orleans 31, TAMPA BAY 23
NEW ENGLAND 34, Dallas 26
UPSET – Minnesota 24, CHICAGO 20
NEW YORK JETS 23, Miami 16

Very quick thoughts this week.

- Green Bay is the obvious lock by playing the Rams

- Most people will go WTF when seeing I took Minnesota as today’s upset but after seeing them last week there is a reason, Adrian Peterson. The Bears currently have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL so I expect Minnesota to just keep pounding the ball. Look for a very boring Sunday Night game.

- Expecting the Jets to beat the Dolphins but to struggle to do so.

- Bills and Lions keep on rolling.

- Eagles struggle with the Redskins but turn their fortunes around by pulling out a late win, instead of a late collapse. The win won’t be convincing enough though to change fans opinions.

- Panthers/Falcons probably one of the best games of the weekend. I think Falcons pull it out at home but if Newtown gets in a passing groove this could be an upset.

- Texans/Ravens is a game I really wanted to see a couple weeks ago. Now that the Texans don’t have Andre Johnson I go ehh whatever.

Last Week – 8-5
Season 44-17
UPSET – 3-1
LOCK – 3-1
Correct Scores – 0
Partially Correct Scores – 4