NLCS Preview – Los Angeles / Philadelphia

This is a pretty good match-up we have this year for the 2008 NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies both return to the big show for what could be an epic match between two heavyweights. The Dodgers won their series against the Chicago Cubs with pure dominance, hitting and pitching, it was all in sync and made you wonder how the hell the Cubs even made the playoffs. The Phillies? They won with the time tested method of good pitching, their rotation was completely dominant and left Brewers hitters embarrassed the whole series. They were able to squeak the series without much production from their big bats.

I truly believe this series has a chance to be a classic. Like mentioned earlier, both teams have pitchers who if they want can dominate a game. The Phillies big guns have completely dominated Dodgers hitters this year. Cole Hamels dominated Dodgers hitters to the tune of a 2.57 era, while Brett Myers dazzled with a 1.93 era, both pitchers over 14 innings. Now wait a minute, don’t think this was pre-Manny Ramirez, these appearances took place in August. After how Hamels and Myers just blew away the Brew Crew, there fans have to be very encouraged about the chance to take on the Dodgers. The wild card for the pitching staff is going to be Jamie Moyer. Moyer hasn’t faced the Dodgers this year and was uncharacteristically wild in his Divisional Series start. The fans will tell you that he was getting bum calls, and that most of his pitches were strikes. Well sorry they weren’t he was just off on his control and it showed, for the Phillies to win this series they will need Moyer to be effective.

Dodgers pitchers on the other hand have had some trouble against the Phillies hitters this year. Their ace Derek Lowe has an era of 4.26, and Chad Billinglsy a 4.50. Those two are starting the first two games on the road in Philadelphia. Hiroki Kuroda thou has dominated the Phils throwing 12 strikeouts over 13 innings, while compiling a 1.38 era. An interesting note to all of this thou, even thou Lowe has struggled this season against the Phils, he has traditionally done well with an era just over 3 in 11 career starts. Phillies hitters have also hit well against him, but struggle with the long ball which is their catalyst.

For the Phillies to win they’ll need their dormant offense to wake up. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard both had dismal Divisional Series Utley went 2-15 and Howard 2-11. Utley did have big double off Mike Cameron’s glove in Game 1 but other then that he was pretty quiet, and many times looked like he was completely lost at the plate. The Phillies NEED these two to get off their asses, and produce. Utley needs to prove he’s not a regular season guy who can’t perform when the lights are on in October, for his career he is 4 for 26. There are some positive signs thou, mainly Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth. Both players woke up and had big games in the division series clincher. You’ve also got Shane Victorino, and no hit was bigger that series then his Grand Slam in Game 2 that sent a Citizens Bank Park crowd through the roof.

The Dodgers put on a hitting clinic against some pretty good Chicago Cubs pitching. They’re led by the hot hitting Manny Ramirez, and what else can I say about him that hasn’t been said in the last couple days? What hasn’t been mentioned that while Manny has dominated the National League pitching, he’s struggled mightily against the Phillies. In 8 games, he has only a .250 average with 1 homer and 5 rbis. But here’s the deal Manny lives for the big stage, 8 games in August when the team was fighting for a playoff berth don’t define him. I’m quite sure Manny will be more productive now that it’s October and that’s a scary thought as he’s been arguably the most dominant force in baseball history over the past month. I know I’m laying it on thick there, but it’s kind of hard to argue that. The key for the Dodgers thou is to continue the production from the rest of the lineup. And you know what? Despite the low run production, Dodgers hitters did get on base quite frequently against Phillies pitching. James Loney, Jeff Kent, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp all boast averages well over .300. If those guys are on their mark it could be a long series for the Phillies pitchers.

After all of that thou, I feel this series is going to come down to just that the Phillies pitchers. The Phillies pitching staff was simply amazing the Brewers, but they did take advantage of a team that is known for free swinging and very little patience. The Dodgers are a typical Joe Torre club, their big bats will take pitches, they are going to make you work hard for every out, and your pitch count is going to rise. Will the Phillies pitchers be able to deal with a lineup that won’t let you get away with a hanging curve? A player like Manny Ramirez isn’t going to just miss that pitch for a long fly out, he’s going to crush it to Ashburn Alley. So for me the key to this series is that Phillies pitching. If they can control the strike zone and keep the Dodgers hitters off sync they’ve got a chance to win this series.

Taking all things in to consideration I think this will be a long series, 6 or 7 games. Which would mean the Dodgers will have to take at least 1 game in Philadelphia to have any chance at winning this series. This season the home team has won every match-up, with the Phils sweeping at home, and the Dodgers sweeping out in Los Angeles. With the Eagles struggling, Philadelphia wants a winner, and you know what they’re fans will be giving these players all the energy they need. You may hear this is a football town, but step in to Philly now and you’ll see what it really is. My call is Philadelphia in six.

There is still a chance to get tickets for this series, so hurry up if you got some extra cash. Screw the economy go enjoy some good baseball and have a good time. Trust me, you’ll be happy you did.

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Tags: Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies